Suffolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

535
FXUS61 KAKQ 030121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
921 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very warm temperatures are expected from Thursday through
Sunday as a large ridge builds across the East Coast. Shower and
storm chances increase on Friday as a backdoor cold front moves
into the area and stalls. A higher chance for showers and
storms arrives late Sunday into Monday as a cold front slowly
crosses the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected early
next week with the potential for below freezing temperatures
Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Much milder tonight with lows generally in the 50s to lower
  60s (upper 40s Eastern Shore).

Strong low pressure is tracking through the Midwest this evening,
with high pressure offshore of the New England coast. A severe
wx outbreak is ongoing over portions of the lower MS and OH
Valleys in association w/ that strong low and a cold front. A
deep upper trough resides over the western CONUS with upper
ridging building over the srn Mid- Atlantic and Southeast.
Locally, rather quiet wx this evening with a warm front draped
over srn portions of the FA. With the front nearby, there is a
large spread in temps across the area, with 60s across the SW,
50s for most of the I-95 corridor and ern/SE VA/coastal NE NC,
and upper 40s on the MD Eastern Shore. The strong low moves into
the Great Lakes tonight, lifting the warm front N across the
FA. Therefore, expect lows tonight in the upper 40s NE to lower
60s SW early this evening with warming temps overnight. Winds
become S and breezy late tonight behind the warm front as well
with temps warming to the mid- upper 60s by sunrise Thu.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday through Saturday
  outside of locally cooler temperatures on the eastern shore.

- Shower/storm chances increase by Friday.

Low pressure moves from the Great Lakes into SE Canada Thu with a
cold front approaching the Appalachians. Meanwhile, upper ridging
continues to build over the eastern CONUS through the end of the
week, leading to gradual height rises. With the sfc low in SE Canada
and high pressure shifting to near Bermuda by Thu, the flow will
become SW and increase. This will allow for very warm and likely dry
wx for much of the period. In fact, lower to mid 80s are expected
across most of the area on Thu. In addition, it will feel humid as
well as dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s by Thu aftn. While
there will be instability in place Thu aftn/evening, the rising
upper heights and warming mid-level temps very likely create enough
of a cap to inhibit convective initiation (with a better chc of
tstms to our north/northwest). However, if an isolated tstm manages
to develop across the Piedmont on Thu, it could become strong to
severe (but feel the chance of this is very low). SPC has a Marginal
Risk for severe wx across northern portions of the area on Thu to
account for the highly conditional threat. Otherwise, Thu will be
breezy with SSW winds gusting to 25-30 mph.

A few showers will continue to be possible Thu night as a backdoor
cold front slowly drops S across the N portions of the FA. The
backdoor front continues to slowly drift SW through the day Fri
before stalling. The temperature forecast will be highly dependent
on where that backdoor front ends up. South of the front, temps
likely soar well into the 80s, but it will struggle to get out of
the 60s north of the front. A weak shortwave may round the ridge Fri
providing enough lift for scattered showers/storms along the front.
However, confidence is only low-moderate as mid-level temps will be
warm so we`ll likely have a capping inversion to contend with.
As such, will only have 20-40% PoPs mainly Fri afternoon into Fri
evening with any showers/storms tapering off Fri night. Cannot rule
out a few strong storms given dew points in the mid (possibly upper)
60s. Dry and very warm/humid for most areas on Sat as the backdoor
front retreats to the north (but may struggle to cross the eastern
shore). Highs will be well into the 80s for most with 60s/70s on the
eastern shore.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Well above normal temperatures are expected on Sunday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms are possible Sunday
  afternoon through Monday.

- Cooler conditions arrive early next week with below freezing
  temperatures possible Tuesday night.

The large ridge finally breaks down during the second half of the
weekend as the stalled front to our north approaches and crosses the
area. Breezy SW winds develop Sun with winds increasing to 15-20 mph
with gusts up to 30 mph. This will help temps to rise even more with
widespread upper 80s possible as the front nears. Shower/tstm
chances increase Sunday afternoon/evening with the highest precip
chances expected Sunday night and Monday as the front slowly crosses
the area from NNW-SSE. Thunder chances become confined to far SE
portions of the area by Monday aftn with post-frontal stratiform
rain possible farther NW. Rain chances end from NW-SE Mon-Mon night
as much cooler/drier air filters into the area behind the front.
Cool/dry wx is expected on Tue/Wed with highs struggling to get out
of the 50s. The coldest night looks to be Tue night where widespread
lows in the low-mid 30s are in the forecast...with below freezing
temps possible in spots.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday...

VFR currently prevails at all area terminals this evening, but
CIGs are lowering to 3000-4000 ft (from W to E) as a warm front
lifts N through the region. Low-end MVFR to IFR CIGs are likely
overnight, with IFR most likely at RIC and SBY. Will carry
1000-1500 ft CIGs at ORF, PHF, and ECG, but there is some
potential for IFR at these terminals as well. Have IFR CIGs
starting at 07z at RIC and 12z at SBY. No fog is expected as
winds remain around 10 kt through the night. Conditions improve
to MVFR then VFR on Thu as the warm front moves N of the area.
SE winds of around 10 kt veer to the SW on Thursday, with gusts
of 20-30 kt possible in the afternoon. There is a low chance for
a shower or tstm late Thu afternoon and evening N of RIC and
perhaps at SBY, but confidence is much too low for TAF mention
at this time.

Outlook: Mainly dry conditions continue into Thu night, other
than a low-end shower/tstm chance across the far N. A backdoor
front crosses part of the area on Friday, leading to a 20-40%
chc of showers/tstms during the aftn/evening (highest at
RIC/SBY). Dry/VFR on Sat as the front moves back north of the
area.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- SCA conditions develop over the Chesapeake Bay and rivers of eastern
  Virginia due to an increasing E to SE wind this afternoon and
  evening.

- SCA conditions develop over the coastal Atlantic N of
  Parramore Island later tonight into Thursday due to an
  increasing southerly wind and building seas.

- Another period of SCA conditions are possible later this weekend
  and early next week ahead of, and behind a strong cold front.

Afternoon weather analysis shows 1034mb high pressure just off
the coast of New England and a sub 990mb low pressure across
central Iowa. Over the past couple of hours the pressure
gradient from these two systems has tightened and winds speeds
have begun to increase across the local waters. Winds this
afternoon are between 10 to 15 kt with gusts upwards of 20 kt.
Seas are between 2 to 3 ft in the bay and 3 to 4 ft in the
ocean. Winds this evening are progged to shift from E-SE this
afternoon to SE by this evening with sustained winds at or just
above 15 kt and gusts at or just slightly above 20 kt. Seas are
not expected to rise much and stay close to 3 to 4 ft across the
bay and ocean. However, latest guidance shows 5 ft seas
building across the two northern ocean zones this evening and
lasting through Thursday evening. With these ingredients lining
up Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the rivers, bay,
and two ocean zones. The rivers are expected to drop off later
tonight as winds decrease, however, the bay will last through
the early morning hours of Thursday. The two ocean zones do not
come into affect until later this evening when the seas start to
increase. These two zones last till 00z Friday. However, they
could potentially need to be extended due to seas remaining
elevated.

By Thursday, high pressure settles off the Southeast coast. The
wind is expected to be SW 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt Thursday
night, and 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt N of Parramore Is., where
again SCAs will likely need to be extended as seas remain 4-6ft.
A back door cold front is progged to move along the coast
Friday. The S-SW winds will diminish ahead of the front, and
will shift to E to ENE 8-12kt behind the front. Seas will
primarily be 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N Friday, and 2-3ft by Friday
night, with 1-2ft waves in the bay. The backdoor front lifts
back N as a warm front Saturday, with a SW wind increasing to
15-20kt with gusts to 25kt later Saturday night into Sunday as
the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure off the
Southeast coast and a cold front approaching from the W. Seas
build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N. The initial cold front crosses the
region Monday, with a secondary cold front following Monday
night into Tuesday. CAA with this front has the potential to
bring additional SCA conditions in a N to NW wind.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ630-631.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ632-634.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ635>638.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 9 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ650-
     652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...ERI/SW
MARINE...AJZ/HET