Suffolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

189
FXUS61 KAKQ 250606
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
206 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves further offshore this evening into tonight.
Another system brings warmer, but unsettled conditions later
Friday through Saturday. Drier and cooler weather will return
for Sunday and Monday, followed by another warmup with above
normal temperatures heading into the middle of next week. A cold
front approaches the region on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Cool and dry overnight across the area, with patchy fog
  possible tonight in E/SE VA and NE NC.

- A warm front lifts across the forecast area today, with
  scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms mainly west
  of I-95.

High pressure remains offshore early this morning, with the
ridge axis stretched across the Mid-Atlantic. Temps as of 150 AM
ranged from the low-mid 50s for most with locally higher temps
across the far SW Piedmont where cloudy skies have kept temps
higher. Otherwise, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will
allow for morning lows in the lower to mid 50s, with upper 40s
possible in some MD Eastern Shore counties. Winds will decouple,
which may allow for the development of patchy fog, mainly across
SE VA/NE NC. Conditions will quickly improve after sunrise as
any fog that developed burns off.

A warm front will lift through the area today, and scattered
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm may accompany the
front as it moves through. The best chances for any scattered
showers will mainly be along and west of I-95, with less of a
chance further north and east. However, there are some models
showing some increasing low level convergence and modest
moisture pooling into interior NE NC and SE VA as well, so have
increased PoPs in these areas. Overall QPF amounts are light,
with generally less than 0.10" expected through Friday, but some
locally higher amounts will be possible. High temperatures will
reach the mid 70s to near 80 degrees by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday ahead of a cold
front.

- Cooler and dry on Sunday.

A cold front will approach from the NW Saturday morning, crossing
the region later Saturday, and pushing off the coast Saturday night.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase later in the morning into
the afternoon, before diminishing from NW to SE by Saturday evening.
The broad QPF footprint with this system is less than 0.50"
(averaging 0.20-0.40"), but with convection, expect a lot of local
variation. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for a few
stronger storms Saturday afternoon, especially if the the morning
activity can end quicker, leading to some clearing ahead of the
actual frontal passage (as the 12z NAM depicts). It should be noted
that the best dynamics are still north of the area. The latest SPC
Day 2 only shows general thunder for the local area at this time.
Remaining above average on Saturday with highs generally in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. The sfc low does become rather intense
Saturday night off the coast of Maine, bringing a significant push
of much cooler and drier air back into the CWA Saturday night. Lows
will drop into the 40s to lower 50s Sunday morning, along with gusty
N winds. Cooler but dry with plentiful sunshine on Sunday with highs
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 315 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures Monday, with much warmer, above average
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Dry through Tuesday, a chance for showers Wednesday with the next
front.

With a fairly strong upper level ridge over the central CONUS, and a
deep closed upper low off the New England coast, the NW flow aloft
will lead to a strong area of high pressure building SE into the
local area into early next week. Sunday night/Monday morning will be
quite cool with widespread lows in the 40s away from the immediate
coast (suspect guidance is too warm). Temperatures on Monday
afternoon will be close to slightly above average with highs in the
mid to upper 70s inland and upper 60s to lower 70s at the coast.
Remaining dry Tuesday, but with above normal temperatures returning
as the high moves offshore, allowing increasing southerly flow once
again (highs back into the 80s). By Wednesday, the next front
is expected to be approaching from the west. Chc PoPs return
later in the day, but temperatures look well above avg out ahead
of this, well into the 80s, with ~90F possible for highs. The
front crosses the area and then likely stalls near or south of
the local area, leading to the potential for unsettled
conditions on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 205 AM EDT Friday...

Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and calm winds early this
morning will allow for the potential for patchy fog across SE
VA/NE NC. PHF has already seen patchy fog with fog also possible
at ORF between 9-12z. Cannot rule out some patchy fog at ECG or
SBY (if a marine layer moves onshore) early this morning,
however, confidence is too low to reflect in the TAFs.
Otherwise, mid to high clouds build later this morning across
the area with mostly cloudy skies everywhere this afternoon
through tonight. CIGs remain generally VFR with MVFR CIGs
possible after 5z Sat. As a warm front lifts N today, scattered
showers/storms develop generally along and W of I-95 this
afternoon into early this evening. Confidence in any
shower/storm reaching RIC is too low for any given time to
reflect as prevailing in the TAF. As such, have added a PROB30
at RIC to account for the uncertainty. For the rest of the
terminals, showers/storms should hold off until after 6z Sat
with PoPs continuing from late tonight through Sat. Winds become
S 5-10 kt (10 kt for most) this afternoon behind the warm front.

Outlook: Scattered showers and storms are likely late tonight
through Sat afternoon ahead of and along an approaching cold
front. However, rainfall totals appear low with low confidence
in timing for any given shower/storm. MVFR CIGs are possible
during this timeframe. VFR conditions return for Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 235 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A relatively benign marine pattern persists through Friday.

- Winds increase ahead of a cold front Friday night into Saturday
with low-end Small Craft conditions possible.

- High end Small Craft Advisory or low-end Gale conditions are
likely Saturday night into early Sunday behind a strong cold front.

Light easterly flow persists across the marine area this afternoon
with high pressure centered offshore of New England. Similarly
benign conditions continue into tonight, with the flow gradually
veering to SE Friday morning. Wind speeds increase to 10-15 kt
Friday afternoon and evening but remain predominantly sub-SCA
through early Friday night. A cold front approaches from the NW
later Friday night as low pressure tracks well N/NW of the area.
With the pressure gradient tightening, an increase in southerly
winds is anticipated late Friday night through Saturday. While
prevailing winds generally stay 10-15 kt, marginal Small Craft
Advisory conditions, with a few gusts of 20-25 kt, are possible
during the first half of Saturday. A brief lull in the winds follows
into later Saturday, before the cold front crosses the waters
Saturday night.

As mentioned above, a rather strong cold front passage is forecast
Saturday night and a (brief) robust period of CAA is expected
immediately behind the front. Additionally, pressure rises on the
order of 6-9 mb/6 hr are depicted in NAM and GFS output. This
suggests the potential for high-end Small Craft or low-end Gale
conditions for a ~12 hr period Saturday night into early Sunday
morning. While wind probabilities for >34 kt gusts have decreased
with this forecast cycle, still think there is a decent chance for a
quick period of gusts to around 35 kt, especially along and
immediately behind the surge of cooler/drier air. It is still
uncertain whether Gale headlines will be needed, or whether these
higher winds could be handled w/ short-fused Special Marine
Warnings. For now, the forecast is for winds to become N/NNW 20-30
kt (highest across the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters) with gusts
up to 35 kt behind the front Saturday night. Small Craft Advisory
winds continue through most of Sunday, followed by much lighter
winds Sunday night into the first half of next week. SCAs
potentially return early Wednesday in elevated SW flow, though
uncertainty is high at this range.

Waves in the Chesapeake Bay of 1-2 ft and seas of 2-3 ft persist
through Friday. Seas build to 3-4 ft Friday night with some
occasional 4-5 ft seas across the N coastal waters on Saturday. Seas
and waves build to 4-6 ft Saturday night into Sunday wit the
elevated northerly flow behind the cold front.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM/NB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RMM/SW